Published in Inside bubi
Why bubi will never show you a win rate
Inside bubi
The number we won’t print
The number every trading product leads with is the one we refuse to put on a page. Here is the reasoning, because you should be suspicious of anyone who does.
Every trading tool you have ever been sold led with a number. A win rate, a monthly return, a profit factor with a lot of decimal places. We have none of those on this site, and it is not because we could not find flattering ones.
Any number we printed would be ours, not yours
A win rate belongs to a specific strategy, on a specific market, over a specific window, at a specific cost assumption. Change any one of those four and the number changes. Print it on a marketing page and you have stripped away all four, leaving a figure that describes nothing anyone can reproduce.
You would then be trading against an expectation we set and cannot honour. That is a worse outcome for you than never seeing the number at all.
The costs alone can invert it
Simulations fill at mid by default, with no spread, no commission and no slippage. A strategy that looks strong at mid and marginal at your broker’s real costs is not a rare case, it is the normal case, and it is the single most common reason a backtest and an account disagree.
So the honest version of any headline figure would need your broker, your account size and your fill assumptions attached to it. At which point it is not a headline figure. It is a Simulation, and you can run it yourself in a minute.
What we show instead
The equity curve, the drawdown and every trade the strategy took, on the market, window and costs you chose. Our grade scores consistency rather than profit, so one lucky run does not read like a reliable one.
All of it describes what already happened. None of it is a forecast, and a simulated result is never a promise about the future.
What to do with this
Take it as a test you can apply to anyone, us included: ask what window, what market and what costs. If the answer is not immediate and specific, the number is decoration.
Trading carries a real risk of loss, and no figure on any website changes that.